Mastering Fishing Games: How the Bullet Attrition Rate Model Helps You Identify the Most Cost-Efficient Targets

Most beginners treat fishing games (fish shooting games) like a chaotic arcade—just fire at anything that moves and hope something dies. But high-level players know the truth:

Fishing games are mathematical.
Winning depends on how efficiently you convert bullets into profit.

This is where the Bullet Attrition Rate Model (BAR Model) comes in.

Instead of relying on luck, advanced players calculate the probability, durability, and reward ratio of each target. The goal?
Shoot as little as possible while capturing the highest-value fish.

Let’s break down how the BAR Model works and why it completely changes the way you approach shooting games.

What Is the Bullet Attrition Rate Model?

The Bullet Attrition Rate (BAR) represents how many bullets you are statistically expected to lose when trying to kill a specific target.

It is calculated based on:

• the fish’s hidden hit points (HP) or durability
• the probability each bullet inflicts damage
• the fish’s payout multiplier
• the actual cost per bullet
• the number of players firing at the same target

Formula concept (simplified):

BAR = (Expected Bullets Used × Bullet Cost) – Expected Reward Value

A fish is considered “cost-efficient” if the reward outweighs the bullet attrition loss.

This model helps players stop wasting bullets on fish that are mathematically unprofitable.

Why Random Shooting Always Leads to Losses

New players usually lose because they:

• shoot at fish that are almost dead but stolen by others
• chase large targets without enough bullets
• fire continuously without evaluating cost
• waste bullets on low-value fish with high HP
• fail to track their expected return per shot

Fishing games feel fast, but the math behind them is slow and predictable.

High-level players control every bullet with intention.

Understanding Target Value Through the BAR Model

The BAR Model helps players categorize fish into three groups:

1. High-Value, Low-Attrition Targets (Best Targets)

These are fish that give more reward than the expected bullet cost.

Examples include:

• medium-sized fish with mid-range HP
• fish with stable multipliers (e.g., x6–x12)
• slow-moving fish that are easy to hit
• fish entering the screen at predictable angles

Smart players prioritize these.

2. High-Value, High-Attrition Targets (Risky Targets)

Bosses, large fish, or rare creatures.
They look tempting because of big rewards, but they require:

• high bullet investment
• stable bankroll
• positioning advantages
• sometimes luck or timing

These are profitable only when the screen condition favors you.

3. Low-Value, High-Attrition Targets (Worst Targets)

The most common mistake among beginners.

These are fish that:

• move too fast
• are too small
• give low multipliers
• require too many bullets due to low hit rate

The BAR Model shows these targets will always make you lose.

How Advanced Players Use the BAR Model in Real Time

1. Estimate HP Based on Fish Type

Experienced players learn approximate HP values:

• small fish: low HP
• medium fish: mid HP
• large fish: high HP
• golden fish/bosses: extremely high HP

The goal is not precision—it’s pattern recognition.

2. Calculate Expected Bullets Needed

Based on your firepower, hit rate, and fish movement.

If a fish requires 8 bullets on average but you have only 12 left?
Skip it.

3. Compare Bullet Cost vs. Fish Reward

A fish that costs 10 bullets and pays x6 is inefficient.
A fish that costs 4 bullets and pays x6 is extremely profitable.

Advanced players evaluate every target like a stock investor evaluating ROI.

4. Track “Competition Pressure”

If three players shoot the same fish, your BAR skyrockets.

Why?

• You spend bullets
• Someone else may last-hit
• Your reward becomes zero

So smart players avoid shared targets unless they are certain they can secure the kill.

5. Shoot With Intent, Not Emotion

BAR-based players:

• stop firing when a fish’s survival becomes inefficient
• switch targets instantly based on probability
• never chase fast-moving low-value fish
• save bullets for high-value opportunities
• stay calm even when missing kills

Emotion loses games.
Mathematics wins them.

The Hidden Trick: Screen Condition Determines BAR Efficiency

Advanced players also analyze the screen state, for example:

• the density of fish
• the entry direction
• the presence of boss-level targets
• whether the “hot round” or “cold round” appears
• how many players are on the map

A screen full of large, slow, high-multiplier fish = low BAR environment
This means bullets convert into profit efficiently.

A screen full of tiny, fast fish = high BAR environment
This means bullets evaporate faster than value returns.

Knowing when NOT to shoot is the mark of a professional player.