Introduction: A New Era of Soccer Analysis
Are you into betting but tired of relying on luck alone? Want to dive into data analysis but not sure where to start? At jilibet, we believe smarter insights lead to smarter bets. One of the most game-changing metrics in recent years is Expected Goals, or xG—a stat used to measure the quality of a shot. But once you start digging into xG, you quickly realize… it’s just the beginning.
Today, we’re going beyond the basics and diving into three advanced xG metrics that can level up your understanding of the game:
• npxG (Non-Penalty Expected Goals)
• xG Chain
• xG Build-up
These tools go beyond traditional stats and give you a much clearer picture of how players and teams really perform on the pitch.
Definition:
xG estimates the likelihood of a shot becoming a goal. It looks at things like shot angle and distance. The type of assist is also important. These factors help determine the quality of a chance. Removing penalty kicks gives a clearer view. This is where npxG comes in. It isolates open-play attacking threat.
npxG: Shifting the Focus Beyond Penalties
Penalty goals tend to have a high xG value (around 0.75–0.80), which can skew the data. By removing them, npxG gives us a more accurate look at how dangerous a player is during open play.
Example:
Let’s say Player A and Player B both have 10 xG this season. But A scored 5 goals from penalties (around 4 xG), while B didn’t take any penalties.
• A’s npxG = 6
• B’s npxG = 10
This tells us that B has been a bigger threat during open play.
Definition:
xG Chain credits every player involved in the build-up to a shot—not just the shooter or assister. So even a simple pass in the middle of a move gets counted.
Why it matters:
xG chain takes the analysis a step further by breaking down the attacking process into individual actions and their associated probabilities. It tracks the chain of events leading up to a shot, considering factors like passes, dribbles, and key passes. This allows analysts to pinpoint specific areas of the build-up play that contribute to successful shots and identify where the team might be losing opportunities. A team might have high npxG but a low xG chain if their build-up play is inefficient, leading to poor shot opportunities.
Example:
If you notice a player or team consistently registering high xG Chain values, it signals potential for growth, and you’ll want to keep a keen eye on their upcoming matches for betting opportunities.
xG Build-up (Expected Goals from Build-up Play)
Definition:
xG Build-up is similar to xG Chain but excludes the shooter and assister. It focuses only on the players involved in the early stages of the attack.
Why it matters:
xG build-up delves even deeper into the team’s approach. It quantifies the quality of the initial phase of the attack, evaluating the efficiency of the team’s passing patterns, their ability to retain possession, and the creation of dangerous attacking positions. High xG build-up values suggest a team is effectively creating chances from early stages of possession, while low values might indicate a need for improvement in the initial phases of the build-up.
Example:
xG Build-up tracks a player’s involvement in an attacking sequence. This is before the final pass or shot. It’s different from xG Chain. xG Chain looks at the entire sequence. xG Build-up hones in on the early stages. It values ball progression and creative passing. It’s about what happens before the chance is created. This gives credit to players who start the attack. It highlights their contribution to the team’s overall threat.
